ÐÓ°ÉÂÛ̳

After months on the run, Cecile and her family finally returned to a ransacked home and an uncertain future in the Democratic Republic of the Congo¡¯s restive east. Her only assurance: ÐÓ°ÉÂÛ̳ (WFP) vouchers to buy precious food - support that may soon dry up.

In Afghanistan's eastern Kunar Province, Khair Rahman worries how his family will survive the bitter months to come. They count among thousands left homeless by a late August earthquake. Now they face an additional challenge, as ÐÓ°ÉÂÛ̳sharply cuts assistance for lack of funds.  "Winter is near," says Rahman, whose family found shelter in a tent. "And we cannot live like this in the winter." 

Worldwide, sharply shrinking humanitarian aid is having a catastrophic effect on some of the most vulnerable people - even as hunger reaches record highs. A new ÐÓ°ÉÂÛ̳report, shows how a 40 percent drop in donations to our operations this year could push up to 13.7 million current ÐÓ°ÉÂÛ̳aid recipients from crisis into emergency food insecurity. Known as IPC Phase 4, the latter is the second-highest hunger level set by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, the global authority.

For six hotspot countries - Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Haiti, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan - the ramifications are especially dire, with ÐÓ°ÉÂÛ̳forced to shrink or end food assistance for millions by year's end. The cuts are hitting some of the world's hungriest communities, already reeling from conflict, displacement and climate shocks. Children, women, refugees and internally displaced people will be the most affected.

And it is only the beginning. The overall fallout of reduced aid will be felt months later, the report warns, and could ¡°severely undermine global food security.¡±

¡°This is why we call it a ¡®slow burn¡¯ in the report,¡± says Jean-Martin Bauer, Director of WFP¡¯s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service. ¡°Because the cuts haven¡¯t fully fed through the system yet to all countries and communities.¡±

A wider impact

As ÐÓ°ÉÂÛ̳and other humanitarian operations shrink and shutter, the broader fallout could be equally devastating: from early marriages and school dropouts, to increased social unrest, migration and economic and political turmoil.

¡°These cuts are triggering additional food insecurity that in itself could have impacts at the country and regional levels,¡± says Bauer, adding this could affect ¡°the stability of some very fragile countries.¡±

In Somalia, where 4.4 million people face high levels of hunger, just 350,000 will receive ÐÓ°ÉÂÛ̳food assistance next month, down from 2.2 million a year ago - even as unrest and a severe drought grip the Horn of Africa nation.

The fallout is also seen in DRC, where a record 28 million people are severely hungry - including 10.3 million, like Cecile, who live in the conflict-hit east. When fighting reached her home of Rubaya, in North Kivu province, the mother of five and her family fled to a displacement camp - then fled again, when conflict caught up with them.

¡°When we returned home, we found that all our belongings had been stolen,¡± she says. ¡°We were forced to start from scratch.¡± (As a displaced person, Cecile¡¯s last name has been withheld for her protection).

More long-term, the shrinking donations are crippling programmes to shore up livelihoods and resilience in places like  flood-hit South Sudan or drought-hit Niger, or those that tide communities over during shocks. Across the Sahel, for example, ÐÓ°ÉÂÛ̳resilience programmes that helped lift half-a-million people out of aid dependency are at risk if donations dry up. 

And across the Atlantic, in Haiti - where 5.7 million people face acute or worse food insecurity - a severe funding shortfall has forced ÐÓ°ÉÂÛ̳to end hot meals and halve monthly rations. Also hit are ÐÓ°ÉÂÛ̳efforts to preposition food ahead of the hurricane season.

¡°In Haiti, there¡¯s no contingency stock in the country for the first time since 2016,¡± says Bauer, who previously served as ÐÓ°ÉÂÛ̳country director there. ¡°And we know Haiti gets hit by hurricanes, earthquakes and civil strife - which means we¡¯re not able to respond quickly should something happen.¡±

Wakeup call

ÐÓ°ÉÂÛ̳is also sharply paring our winter assistance in Afghanistan - usually positioned before snow cuts off access to remote communities - to likely reach only 8 percent of our target. Overall, our operations in the country, where more than 9 million people are severely hungry, face a US$622 million shortfall over the next six months. 

¡°The winter gets very cold,¡± says Rahman, the quake survivor. ¡°We urgently need support.¡±

¡°We¡¯re reeling from multiple shocks here,¡± says referring not just the to earthquake, but also to drought, a recent flood of Afghans forcibly returned home - but especially to the devastating impact of the funding cuts.  

¡°We see millions of Afghans suffering,¡± Aylieff adds, describing spiking malnutrition and hunger, with women and girls most severely impacted, ¡°but we simply do not have the means to respond.¡±

For ÐÓ°ÉÂÛ̳and other humanitarians, the vanishing aid and shrinking staff are a wakeup call to rethink food assistance priorities, the report says. Among other recommendations, it suggests focusing more on famine prevention and food rations that reach fewer people but cover minimum needs; collaborating more closely; and investing in resilience programmes that deliver long-term paybacks.

Also key: ensuring funding continues for gathering crucial data to assess hunger and the impact of assistance - and the potentially disastrous consequences of funding cuts.

¡°The data and analytics - they¡¯re the humanitarian community¡¯s GPS,¡± Bauer says. ¡°We¡¯re taking the risk of losing our way without the data. So the data must flow.¡±

Benjamin Anguandia contributed to this story. 

Learn more about WFP's work in Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Haiti, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan